Cbs news new york times poll into the home stretch october

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CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL

INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

q1 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2004 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far?

A lot Some Not much No attention so far DK/NA

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

Total Rep

Dem

Ind

%

%

%

%

62

69

62

54

30

26

29

34

7

4

7

9

2

1

2

2

0

0

0

1

Oct04b 10/9/11/04

% 56 33

9 2 0

q2 Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Kerry yet to have an opinion?

Favorable

39

3

74

38

38

Unfavorable

44

88

10

37

40

Undecided

14

9

13

22

17

Haven't heard enough

2

0

3

2

4

Refused

1

0

0

1

1

q3 Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion?

Favorable

43

91

10

32

45

Unfavorable

45

4

79

47

42

Undecided

11

5

9

19

12

Haven't heard enough

1

0

1

1

1

Refused

0

0

1

1

0

q4 How likely is it that you will vote in the 2004 election for President this November would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President?

Definitely vote Probably vote Probably not vote Definitely not vote Already voted (Vol.) DK/NA

89

93

89

85

8

4

9

11

2

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

2

q5 If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards or George W. Bush and Dick Cheney? [CANDIDATES' NAMES AND ANSWER CODES WILL ROTATE]

John Kerry George W.Bush Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) DK/NA

Total %

46 47

0 0 2 5

** LIKELY VOTERS **

Rep

Dem

Ind

%

%

%

4

86

47

92

10

40

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

1

4

3

3

7

Oct04b 10/9-11/04

% 46 47

1 0 2 4

q7 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?

Kerry

Bush

Total

Supporters Supporters

Mind made up

85%

89

93

81

Too early to say for sure

9

10

7

12

DK/NA

0

1

0

1

No candidate choice

6

0

0

6

q8 Would you describe your support for George W. Bush as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

BUSH SUPPORTERS

Strongly favor

70

77

49

57

64

Like but with reservations 22

17

29

32

27

Dislike other candidates

7

6

22

7

8

DK/NA

1

0

0

4

1

q9 Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

KERRY SUPPORTERS

Strongly favor

49

41

55

37

49

Like but with reservations 26

26

22

35

26

Dislike other candidates

23

34

20

27

23

DK/NA

2

0

3

1

2

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

3

q10 Ralph Nader may be on the ballot in your state. If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats; George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, and Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice President, would you vote for John Kerry and John Edwards; George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? [CANDIDATES' NAMES - BUSH AND KERRY - AND RESPECTIVE ANSWER CODES WILL ROTATE]

** LIKELY VOTERS **

Oct04b

Total Rep

Dem Ind

10/9/11/04

%

%

%

%

%

John Kerry

45

4

84

45

45

George W. Bush

47

91

11

40

48

Ralph Nader

2

2

1

4

2

Other (vol.)

0

0

0

0

0

Wouldn't vote (vol.)

1

1

1

1

1

Depends (vol.)

1

1

0

1

1

Don't know/No answer

4

1

3

9

3

*Question was not asked in states in which Ralph Nader will definitely not be on the

ballot (CA,GA,IL,IN,MA,MO,OK,OR,VA).

q11 If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?

Republican

39

84

5

31

Democratic

45

3

88

41

Other (vol.)

0

0

0

0

Depends (vol.)

7

6

4

11

DK/NA

9

7

3

17

*trend is among registered voters.

Sep04c* 39 41

0 8 12

q12 Do you think your representative in Congress from your district has performed his or her job well enough to deserve re-election, or do you think it's time to give a new person a chance?

Deserve re-election Time for new person Depends on candidates (vol.) DK/NA

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

51

60

48

47

27

20

30

30

3

2

4

3

19

18

18

20

Oct02f 42 38

2 18

q13 So far, would you be more likely to describe the 2004 Presidential campaign as interesting or dull?

Interesting Dull DK/NA

77

82

76

71

19

14

19

25

4

4

5

4

Sep04c 67 29

2

q14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as

President?

Oct04b

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **

10/9-11/04

Approve

44

92

13

34

43

Disapprove

48

5

84

50

48

DK/NA

8

3

3

6

9

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

4

q15 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

Right direction Wrong track DK/NA

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

Total Rep Dem

Ind

%

%

%

%

39

80

7

34

57

15

92

61

4

5

1

5

Oct04a 10/1-3/04

% 41 50

9

q16 Which ONE issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2004 presidential campaign?

Economy and jobs

20

16

24

22

23

War in Iraq

18

14

21

19

20

Health care/Medicare/Rx drugs 15

12

18

14

11

Defense / Military

4

5

1

4

4

Abortion

3

5

2

2

1

Taxes/IRS

3

5

3

2

2

Terrorism (general)

3

5

1

2

3

Security/Safety

2

4

0

1

4

Education

2

2

2

2

3

Social Security

2

2

2

3

1

Foreign Policy

2

1

2

2

3

Other

17

19

16

17

15

DK/NA

9

10

8

10

10

q17 From what you have seen or heard, do you think either candidate is talking about that issue? IF YES, ASK: Which candidate?

Yes, Kerry

16

17

Yes, Bush

10

11

Yes, both

38

29

No

26

33

DK/NA

3

2

No issue in q16

7

9

q19 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling foreign policy?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **

41

86

10

33

44

54

10

86

60

48

5

4

4

7

8

q20 How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

42

86

11

34

53

11

85

56

5

3

4

10

Oct04b 10/9-11/04 45 49

4

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

5

q21 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **

Total Rep Dem

Ind

%

%

%

%

42

86

12

35

54

11

86

61

4

3

2

4

Oct04b 10/9-11/04

% 42 54

4

q22 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

55

94

24

52

54

38

4

68

38

39

7

2

8

10

7

q23 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

38

57

30

30

46

29

52

55

16

15

18

15

Jan04a 45 42 13

q24 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?

Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

3

5

2

2

50

82

27

43

32

11

43

43

14

1

28

12

1

1

0

0

Oct04b 10/9-11/04

4 48 32 15

1

q25 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?

Better Worse Same DK/NA

24

48

7

19

34

8

57

34

41

41

37

46

1

3

0

1

Sep04c 28 28 43

1

q26 Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about John Edwards yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

32

8

58

28

30

61

7

23

14

13

10

21

24

18

26

27

0

0

0

1

Oct04b 10/9-11/04 34 25 14 26

1

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL: INTO THE HOME STRETCH

October 14-17, 2004

6

q27 Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Dick Cheney yet to have an opinion?

Favorable Unfavorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

** REGISTERED VOTERS **

Total Rep Dem

Ind

%

%

%

%

39

79

8

31

36

5

64

35

14

10

11

21

11

7

16

11

0

0

1

2

Oct04b 10/9-11/04

% 38 36 12 14

0

q28 Compared to past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign this year has been more positive, more negative, or about the same as past campaigns?

More positive More negative About the same DK/NA

13

11

15

12

41

38

44

40

44

50

40

44

2

1

1

4

Sep04c 9

45 44

2

q29 Which will matter more in deciding how you vote for President -- national security issues or economic issues?

National security Economic issues Both equal (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA

46

65

30

44

37

21

52

38

14

11

16

15

1

1

0

1

2

2

2

2

q30 In general is your opinion of the Democratic party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable Not favorable DK/NA

54

15

89

54

41

81

8

35

5

4

2

11

Jul04c 54 40

6

q31 In general is your opinion of the Republican party favorable or not favorable?

Favorable

49

96

11

42

49

Not favorable

47

3

85

49

47

DK/NA

4

1

4

9

4

q32 During 2003 and 2004, do you think Congress accomplished more or less than it usually does during a typical two-year period?

Oct02a*

10/1-3/04

More

16

22

14

13

25

Less

54

40

63

58

53

Same (vol.)

10

14

7

10

7

DK/NA

20

24

16

19

15

*Varied wording: "During 2001 and 2002, do you think Congress has accomplished..."

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